Monday, November 10, 2008

Day 2

So I'm still reading through Getting Started in Technical Analysis.  I'm just about near part four: trading system guidelines, finishing part three on Trading Systems.  Roughly 40 pages left until the Appendix, which I'm not sure I'll read or not.  Basically the whole part on optimizing and testing trading systems is rather confusing.  I'm going to have to look further into this from other sources.  But it seems to me that Schwager sees optimizing as possibly pointless.
Schawager somewhat says that optimizing trading system parameter sets shouldn't be used and then again should be.  He's almost saying I don't like them and I don't use them, they don't help anyone make money, but if there is someone out there that uses it and has made lots of money, it could possibly work so my word is not the end all of answers, as it shouldn't be anyways.  Sounds like he's covering his own ass in this chapter, but its good to get a background in it, although it gets to be kind of complex and frustrating to pick apart.
I'm trying to finish this book as soon as I can so as to start reading another one.  The next book isn't exactly on technical analysis or day trading to be exact, but can be seen as book on tool that traders have at their disposal, options.  Options can be used easily and can be thought of as simple, and then again, they can be complex and can be used in different ways to hedge against loss or other investments.  I don't fully understand options and all of the different types of options, butterfly spreads and such (I think that's the correct term).  But I hope to fell more confident in understanding options and being able to use them as I start to read the book.  Oh, the book is called "Options made EASY: your guide to profitable trading", by Guy Cohen.



I watched the market most of the day, and watched some more financial news and such on CNBC.  Mad Money, Fast Money, The Closing Bell, etc..  I really like CNBC.  Great channel, real time stock tickers, and their website is pretty good too, I might start using it a little more.  All I know is, I'm itching to start analyzing and investing in the market, but its so volatile right now, its probably not a good time to put money in the market because its unpredictable.  Any trading system a person tries to use in a time like this might not work out the way it would in a normal market.  Although, looking at it in a different light, with fundamentals involved, some companies have plenty of cash flow, and growth, earnings, dividends even to go around to make it out of this recession.  Its a great time to get stocks for these companies at discount prices.  But this is a
Buy and Hold look on things.  Because yes, these companies are trading at huge discounts, but it might take 5 years or more for them to start showing profit, like possibly 5%?  If you look into the past recession times and see how these companies fared during those recessions, you will see what you will be getting yourself into a little more if you start investing now.  I have no specific companies or data at hand right now and I don't have enough energy right now to delve into research for this one blog, but I'll see what I can uproot later on.

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